Tuesday, May 26, 2015

China Friend or Foe?

China: Friend or Foe?  It all started when Pres Obama said the U.S. would no longer act as the Asian military buffer, or back Japan.  Then compounding the problem Mr. Obama  announced the U.S. would not defend new eastern europe states.  Quickly Russia moved to reconquer their old satellite countries and China made a military move to control the South China Sea.  At that same moment Isis was born.
I promoted the belief that a stability demanding rapidly growing middle class would bring a world friendly China  With the U.S. as a buffer, the Chinese had no major military fears.  Do the Chinese really fear a Japan or Russian takeover?  With the buffer removed the searing memories of WW11 appeared.  China's decision to protect itself makes sense.
During the first years of new Chinese leaders the military has proven aggressive, backing off once the new President consolidates his position.  Mr. Xi's first term is no exception with the military claiming ownership of the South China Sea.
This month the U.S. was asked to co occupy several Phillipine military bases.  Equipment, troops and most important, the American flag sit on two islands 11 and 52 miles from the widely claimed Spratly Islands.  So expansionism has likely ended.
But that will not suffice.  To avoid Iranian type U.N. sanctions, or a fight, the Chinese must withdraw back to the mainland plus 10 miles.  Sanctions typically result in a collapsed stock market and economy.  It would probably also bring about the removal of a, potentially moderate, President Xi.  The U.S wants neither but cannot placate militant China.
In the past I have avoided investing in countries which threaten world peace.  Russia, and it's nuclear arsenal pointed at the U.S., is an example.  Is that now true of China?  Today U.S.military sons and daughters are now tasked with holding the front line and reversing China's expansionism.
We will sell our China mainland investments and hold Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.  If the Chinese moderates prevail, and militarism ends, we shall re evaluate.  Morally how can any U.S. public plan also fail to exit China?
Roger Groh
05/26/15